Only three kinds of lies

Numbers. We use them all the time; we're influenced by them; and we haven't a clue much of the time as to what they really mean.

We listened to an interesting podcast about numbers while driving home from Thanksgiving dinner with the wonderful sons. The interviewee is a journalism professor who's just published a book about what he calls "the dark side of mathematics."

Most of what he dealt with was the statistics branch of math. No better way to lie to people than by using statistics.

The amusing part of the podcast came when the prof failed to properly apply his own principles.

Citing a study that showed men have an average of seven sexual partners in their lifetimes while women report only having four, the prof declared that this was impossible, that the numbers should be close to even.

But he forgot that the study involves sampling a population and making generalizations about the population. Of course, this is the basis of modern polling, and it works in various levels of success.

But consider this. We have an unusual sample of eight people, one guy and seven women. Now, it happens that the guy happened to sleep with all seven women. So he reports having seven partners. Now what if each woman also slept with three other men during their lifetimes. Men not represented in our sample.

Bingo. We've matched the study results.

This is, of course, wildly simplified. But in a study like this one, unless you've a huge sample, you face a similar difficulty. The results may be absolutely accurate and still not be representative of the population as a whole.

But in one of those delicious coincidences often mistakenly referred to as irony, the next morning a news show I was watching reported on a "study" conducted by Popular Mechanics (one of my favorite sources for reliable research!) that showed the U.S. Postal Service handled packages more gently than FedEx and UPS.

They even included graphs, another technique the professor noted as being useful for deception, and one of my personal favorites. By manipulating the scale, you can make relatively small differences seem much greater.

Since the title is about three kinds of lies, I'll mention one more -- even though that's not what the quote refers to.

The professor noted that many studies the news media report on show correlations. You know, people who eat kale tend to have fewer cancers than people who don't, or people who drive red Fords have fewer accidents than people who drive black Pontiacs.

But correlations don't necessarily indicate cause. They can help point the way, but correlations are always starting points.

I learned so much about how to properly use numbers, I decided to do a little research and report on the results here.

Consider the graph above. I took a representative sample of approximate IQ scores of people I know read these ramblings. The first thing to notice from this graph is that I am dumber than my readers.

Note, however, that I am not myself particularly dumb. The graph clearly shows I am way above average.

But the obvious conclusion to be reached here is that reading my blog makes you smarter, so I encourage you, dear reader, to pass this along to all your friends.

Have they no shame? Nope

One of the local TV stations is spin checking the advertising for the governor's race, and doing a bang-up job. You know, as in "You're doing a bang-up job, Brownie."

Of course, doing a really good job of checking these ads could turn into a full-time job this year. Both sides are throwing around the most ludicrous claims, and the outside groups fan the flames with the nonsense they put on the air.

My favorite stupid Bill White commercial is the one where he carps about Perry becoming a millionaire while in office. Perry's assets were placed in a blind trust, which means that the manager is doing an excellent job. Oh, I know about the shady land deal accusations, but really, I wish I could find someone to entrust my money to who could turn me into a millionaire.

My least favorite White commercial, on the other hand, comes from one of those outside groups that believes it should "help" a candidate. The ad brings up the Gardisil controversy -- surely one of Gov. Goodhair's less shining moments in office.

The ludicrous part of the ad is its implication that Perry will somehow press ahead with the immunization plan if re-elected. Rick's a lot of things, politically dumb ain't one of them.

But the award for the most noxious ad goes to Texans for Rick Perry and its ad featuring a Houston policeman's widow. She talks about the man who killed her husband, an illegal who'd been arrested a couple of times and deported. The structure of the rest of the ad implies that White supported policies that led to her husband's death.

But the Houston police policies that the ad challenges would not have hampered the police from running the murderer in or out of town if they'd encountered him. In fact, he's exactly the kind of guy the policies were designed for.

The commercial then asks if Houston will remain a sanctuary city. What? White is no longer mayor. If the policies are still in effect, fuss at the current mayor. And no one with any sense claims that Houston is a sanctuary city.

And if the intent is to suggest that if Gov. P is re-elected he will somehow put an end to Houston's policies, then I have to infer that the ad's saying he would interfere in the operations of a city in the same way he claims Washington interferes with Texas.

The candidates still have a week or so to dumbfound me. If they want to succeed, they could quit with the stupidity.

A bigot by any other name

Say you knew someone who didn't like blacks or Hispanics just because they were black or Hispanic. You'd probably believe that person was a bigot, not cool.

We're supposed to be enlightened folks these days who wouldn't admit to bigotry, believing it to be unacceptable, except in certain parts of Redneckville, where the unenlightened congregate in small groups to convince themselves of their superiority.

But a couple of incidents this past week show that bigotry can still be socially acceptable, if it's wrapped in the right package.

A letter to the editor appeared in the Star-T that at first blush extolled the virtues of Bill White when compared with the governor of our fair state, Rick "It's amazing what they can do with makeup to hide wrinkles" Perry.

The writer said he was tired of the guv and his tenure in Austin, and he was attracted to White's stance on education.

But, he said, White had three insurmountable problems: the prez, the speaker of the House, and the Senate majority leader. If White were elected, the writer proclaimed, he would probably immediately become an Obama-Pelosi-Reid pawn and lead our fair state into the jaws of ruin.

No evidence was given for this stance. No suggestion was made that White might actually be a person in his own right, capable of making decisions based on his convictions.

Nope. White has a "D" behind his name, so he must be lumped in with a stereotyped belief about Democratic leadership and be denied the governorship. Perry may not be worth anything, but he's better than a Democrat.

Next one of my Facebook "friends" posted a message to the people of a congressional district, of which the FbF (Facebook friend) is not a resident, urging them to vote against the incumbent, a Democrat, because the FbF had read that the incumbent had voted with Pelosi 97 percent of the time.

I challenged that, asking whether FbF knew the congressman, had ever talked to the man about his positions, or even knew what issues the congressman had voted against the party line about. (Hint: They were votes the FbF would have approved of because they support the FbF's values.)

Nope. Didn't know any of that. The Elephants political platform supported all the things the FbF holds dear, and even though not all Republicans fully held to the party line, the FbF was sure that Republican leadership would force any wayward members to conform and vote the "right" way.

Leaving aside that stunningly illogical reasoning, the essence of the argument comes down to one person being on the wrong side -- you know, the one that starts with "D".

Now, unless I'm missing something, believing that one side is superior based on a select set of criteria, lumping all members of another group together and demonizing them based on another select set of criteria, and refusing to judge an individual on the basis of character is pretty much the essence of bigotry.

So apparently being a racial bigot is wrong, but being a political bigot is OK. Yep. I believe I'm missing something.

Government 101

It's popular these days to blame the government for all our woes.

Government is too big, too obtrusive, the critics say. The only solution is to rid ourselves of the rats in office and pare back the bureaucracy.

But how did government get this way? Has it really ceased being of the people and for the people? Maybe not.

Take this tale as an example.

A bunch of cotton farmers grew tired of old boll weevil eating up their profits, so they banded together and decided on a plan to eradicate the bug.

In order to do this effectively, a whole bunch of factors had to come together. And pretty much the only way to make the whole thing work was to involve the government. Only the government could pass the laws that would ensure that everyone participated in the program because the program only works if every cotton farmer participates. And only the government could enforce penalties for failing to participate.

Funding for the program intially came mostly from the farmers, but government funds, state and federal, would be needed to fully fund operations. In case you didn't immediately think it, government funds mean taxpayer dollars.

Eventually, to convince all the state's farmers to participate, more and more government funds were needed. Yep, that means more taxpayer funds.

In addition, government agencies would need to provide oversight. This didn't necessarily mean that new employees would be hired, but the time they spent on this program would be footed by taxpayers as well.

To accomplish all this, the cotton farmers had to convince legislators to pass the necessary laws and work to obtain the necessary funding. They would be sweet-talked and pressured, whatever was needed to bring about the enabling legislation.

That's an abbreviated version of the process, but think about this: Groups of people in every state work on their elected representatives from every level -- from city councils to the U.S. Congress -- to convince them that in the case of whatever they want, "there oughta be a law."

And when the law is passed, often money has to be spent, and that money comes from us.

So, I ask you, gentle reader, where does the problem lie?

Now add to that the services we think we have to have. Public schools, libraries, infrastructure, police and fire protection -- the list goes on and on.

Residents of a town say, "Hey, we need a new water tower." (Or something else; pick your own example.)

They go to the city and say, "Buy us a new water tower," and city officials say, "We can't. We don't have the money. We can raise your taxes."

The residents say, "No way, but you better get us a water tower, or we'll find a new council."

So the council calls its state officials who may find funds to help out. If not, council members go to the feds.

I ask again, where does the problem lie?

Is it possible, to badly paraphrase Shakespeare, that the problem, dear friends, lies not in the politicians, but ourselves?

This just in

God announced today that he has postponed the apocalypse.

Although he still refused to reveal the "times and seasons," God said the timeline for bringing about the end of the world has been postponed for at least two months.

Speaking through his prophet, Glenn Beck, God said he is waiting to see the results of the November election.

"If, as I expect, the Republicans are able to take both houses of Congress, I plan to extend the delay for another two years," he said. "Balance will be restored to the universe, and at best, Congress won't accomplish a blessed thing because neither party is likely to have a large enough majority to cram legislation through, and if they did, Obama will veto it.

"Without the ability to override a veto, the parties will return to blaming each other for ... whatever, and there'll be no need for me to act."

Beck, or God, whoever, said the focus would shift to the 2012 elections. If Republicans win back the presidency, then the forces of good will have triumphed, God/Beck said, and the apocalypse could be postponed for four more years.

Beck/God refused to answer questions about his reasons for couching his announcement in conditional language as though the Almighty didn't know for sure what was going to happen.

The Christian Booksellers Association expressed its dismay at the announcement.

"Our best-selling books are about prophecies concerning the end of the world," said spokesman I.M. Wright. "We're likely to experience a drop in sales, but we'll encourage our authors to shift their focus to pop psychology."

Wright said sales of serious books on Bible study or Christian discipleship probably wouldn't be affected.

"Nobody much reads those kinds of books, anyway," he said.

God/Beck said another announcement would be made after Christmas.

"We don't want to interfere with holiday protests about putting Christ back in Christmas and pushing economice recovery through purchasing big-ticket electronics for presents."

The margins of error seem pretty large

Listened to a fascinating podcast today with author and journalist Kathryn Schulz, who has a book out -- "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margins of Error."

Schulz discussed one of the processes whereby people come to the conclusion that others who disagree with them aren't just wrong but evil.

Suppose two people are having a disagreement; doesn't matter about what, so let's pick on politics.

Around here, the dominant group I deal with is Republicans, and not just Republicans, but the brand of Republican that is convinced that the president isn't just wrong about anything you want to bring up, but out to destroy society as we know it.

Now, the process would go something like this. They say that Obama is a socialist. I respond by saying he isn't and laying out whatever evidence I believe backs up my point.

The first reaction is that I must be ignorant. If I only knew what they know, then surely I would abandon my wrong-headed ideas and agree with them. But as the conversation continues, they discover that I do have all the information they have.

The second reaction would be that since I'm not ignorant, I must be stupid. That has to be the only explanation for my not being able to come to the same conclusion they've come to. But those who know me know that although I'm not the male equivalent of Marilyn Vos Savant, I can think my way relatively intelligently around a problem.

That can then lead to the last part of the process: that I am either evil or under the influence of evil. How else could I be a smart guy and look at their evidence and still be so very wrong?

Of course, I could be participating in the same process.

Now, if we all wind up coming to the conclusion that those we disagree with are evil or under the influence, you can see how quickly actual communication breaks down.

Shulz suggests that one way to keep the conversation going, at least in a group situation, is for someone to suggest the possibility of being wrong. The dynamic there is that someone else will respond by saying, "Well, now, you might have a point."

But I'm not sure that works with individuals, and what I'm seeing all to frequently these days is that often and admission of possible error brings about the response, "Well, of course you are. 'Bout time you started to come around."

We can't live our lives without some certainty; we'd be paralyzed otherwise. But these days we seem to have a surfeit of certainty about too many things.

Still, Schultz has a point. Maybe in the interest of fostering communication we should be the ones who take a chance and admit we might not know so much about whatever topic we believe so fervently that we can't possibly be in error. Maybe that would preserve enough relationship to eventually bring about a serious conversation.

Of course, I could be wrong.

Satire challenged alert

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